Add Joe Carson, the director of global economic research at New York-based money manager Alliance Bernstein to the list of people who expect a dismal economic performance in Canada in 2016.
Specifically Carson, who was in Toronto Thursday for any presentation and who expects that neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton is going to be around the ticket for this year’s U.S. presidential election, expects the domestic economy will grow by 1.6 per cent this season.
While that expectation is slightly higher than growth in 2015 (1.30 percent) Carson argues that growth will lag because of continued weakness within the energy and manufacturing sectors and high personal debt levels.
And unlike half the Canadian economists, who according to a recent Bloomberg poll expect the financial institution of Canada to cut the overnight rate to 0.25 % in a few days, Carson believes the central bank will wait.
He gave a couple reasons: the currency is headed lower, in part because the U.S. economy is growing stronger (than Canada and indeed elsewhere in the rest of the world as well) and the Federal Reserve has “normalized rates while others are cutting rates.” His other reason may be the expectation the federal government will provide some fiscal stimulus this season.
But Carson argues for all parties C business, labour and government C to take action and employ the low currency, combined with the country’s other advantages, to assist bring jobs to Canada.